Can We Predict the Progression of Vertebral Collapse in Conservative Treatment of Osteoporotic Vertebral Fractures? A 3-Year Retrospective Study of 180 Patients From the Emergency Department

Background Osteoporotic vertebral fractures (OVFs) have a high incidence in the elderly population and are usually treated conservatively with good outcomes. Nevertheless, failure of the conservative treatment may lead to serious complications. The aim of the study is to identify clinical, radiographic, and magnetic resonance imaging findings potentially related to the failure of the conservative treatment of OVFs.

Methods Data from 620 patients treated in the emergency department for vertebral fracture from 2014 to 2016 were analyzed; after patient identification and inclusion criteria, only fresh OVFs of patients older than 65 years have been included. Main outcome measurements were vertebral collapse, fracture shape types, and progression of vertebral collapse. A progression of vertebral collapse >100% was taken as an independent variable to underline the statistically significant difference among the risk factors.

Results A total of 180 patients (138 women; 42 men) and 200 OVFs were analyzed (mean age = 77 years, range = 65–94 years). Potential risks factors for the progression of vertebral collapse >100% were found when fractures occurred in the thoraco-lumbar junction. The swelling type and the bow-shaped type showed higher risk of vertebral collapse, while the concave was the most stable type of fracture with good prognosis. Traumatic fractures had lower risks of fracture progression compared to nontraumatic fractures (eg, fractures after an effort). A linear black signal pattern on short inversion time inversion recovery findings of magnetic resonance imaging corresponded to a risk of progression of the vertebral collapse.

Conclusions Thoraco-lumbar fractures, swelling and bow-shaped fractures, and a linear black area at MR are negative prognostic factors for the failure of conservative treatment.

Level of Evidence 4.

Clinical Relevance The identification of negative prognostic factors may lead to different strategies of treatment to prevent vertebral collapse or failure of conservative treatment.